Tropical Storm Marie to become hurricane: What it means for Southern California's Labor Day weekend
Weather Forecast for Wednesday, Sept. 2
The latest forecast and air quality conditions for the greater Los Angeles area, including beaches, valleys and desert regions.
LOS ANGELES - Tropical Storm Marie is expected to strengthen into a hurricane Wednesday as it moves northwest off the Mexican coast, according to the National Weather Service.
Forecasters state that while the chances of a direct strike on Southern California remain very low, rain, high surf, and other weather impacts are increasingly likely over the Labor Day weekend.
What we know:
As of Tuesday, Marie was located near 15 degrees north latitude and 109 degrees west longitude.
According to the NWS, the National Hurricane Center forecasts the storm to reach hurricane strength Wednesday while continuing its northwest movement through the holiday weekend.
Current projections indicate a high likelihood that Marie will maintain a west-to-northwest track away from the West Coast. However, moisture from the storm will still be drawn into Southern California, according to the NWS.
There is a 50% to 60% chance of widespread light rainfall ranging from 0.10 to 0.50 inches Sunday through Tuesday.
Coastal areas face the highest certainty of impact.
Newport Beach races to protect shoreline ahead of Tropical Storm Marie
Before the tropical moisture arrives, relatively quiet weather is expected across Los Angeles and Orange counties through Friday.
High surf advisories are expected for south-facing beaches, accompanied by very strong rip currents.
Evening high tides are projected to reach 6.5 to 6.8 feet on Sunday and roughly 7 feet on Monday, creating the potential for coastal flooding in low-lying areas and beach erosion, according to the NWS.
Prior to the arrival of tropical moisture, Los Angeles and Orange counties will see relatively quiet weather through Friday, with a West Coast trough keeping temperatures 2 to 6 degrees below seasonal norms.
What we don't know:
The exact path of the storm is uncertain, leaving the exact volume of tropical moisture, rain, and wind reaching Southern California to be determined.
While widespread light rain is anticipated, forecasters are monitoring a 10% to 15% chance of heavy rain and localized thunderstorms.
Additionally, there is a 10% to 15% chance that moderate to strong easterly winds could develop ahead of the precipitation, which would raise fire-weather concerns, the NWS said.
It's also unknown whether peak surf will coincide precisely with the peak high tides; if it does, moderate coastal flooding and beach erosion could occur.
Timeline:
Quiet weather with below-normal temperatures and patchy morning marine-layer fog will remain across coastal plains and valleys through Friday, according to the NWS.
Tropical Storm Marie is expected to intensify into a hurricane on Wednesday.
Coastal swells will begin building over the holiday weekend, with peak high surf advisories and rip currents expected Sunday through Monday night, according to forecasters.
Evening high tides will peak on Sunday between 6.5 to 6.8 feet and on Monday at approximately 7 feet.
The highest chances for widespread rainfall and potential thunderstorm activity run from Sunday through Tuesday.
What they're saying:
The NWS emphasized that the likelihood of the storm making direct landfall in the region as a major system remains minimal, noting, "The chances of Marie directly hitting Southern California as a hurricane or tropical storm remain VERY LOW."
Officials pointed out that only a few computer-model projections showed a track anywhere close to the region.
Forecasters warned that conditions will remain unpredictable as the holiday approaches, stating, "Needless to say, the weather for the upcoming Labor Day weekend may be highly dynamic. A minor change in the track of Marie could result in significant changes to the current forecast."
What's next:
Forecasters will continue to evaluate incoming computer-model projections to determine if Marie shifts its path, which would alter rainfall totals and wind risks.
The NWS will issue updated coastal advisories and weather warnings as the system develops over the open ocean throughout the week.
The Source: This report is based on forecast advisories, computer modeling data, and official analytical statements issued by the National Weather Service and the National Hurricane Center. City News Service contributed.