What would El Niño this summer mean for California's winter?
OAKLAND, Calif. - The El Niño Watch for the upcoming winter continues.
What we know:
On Thursday, the Climate Prediction Center, a division of NOAA, published an update regarding a developing El Niño in the Equatorial Pacific. The latest update states a reversal will soon be taking place.
Cooler than normal water temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific (La Niña) are starting to transition to warmer than normal water temperatures (El Niño).
Chance of El Niño in 2026
By the numbers:
- Chance of El Niño developing this summer: 61%
- Chance of a strong El Niño: 25%
El Niño climatology
According to GoldenGate Weather Services, there have been 27 El Niños in the past. Of those 27, there have only been four "Very Strong" El Niño events (1982-1983, 1991-1992, 1997-1998, and 2015-2016).
During the "Very Strong" Events, rainfall in the San Francisco Bay Area was 141% of normal.
What is an El Niño?
Dig deeper:
El Niño is the warming of the sea surface temperatures thousands of miles away from the Bay Area in the Equatorial Pacific.
The warmer than average temperatures can influence the storm track during the winter months.
Generally, some areas in the northern US may receive less precipitation.
Areas to the south may actually be in the zone for higher than normal precipitation.
What could El Niño mean for winter in California?
There are several circulations that could affect storm tracks during the winter. El Niño is just one of the factors. Leaning on climatology, there is a higher chance of above normal rainfall across California when El Niño conditions are present.
The chances of higher than normal rainfall is focused in the southern half of the state during a general El Niño winter.
The next El Niño diagnostics discussion will be issued on May 14.
The Source: NOAA, KTVU meteorologist Mark Tamayo.