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Analyzing California's top races ahead of Election Day
A new Emerson College Poll of the primary election for Governor of California finds former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra leading the field at 19%, followed by Steve Hilton and Tom Steyer at 17% respectively.
LOS ANGELES - A new Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics survey reveals former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra has surged to the top of a crowded California gubernatorial primary race with 19% support.
He is closely followed by conservative commentator Steve Hilton and businessman Tom Steyer, who are tied at 17%.
What we know:
Becerra leads the primary field for the first time in an Emerson poll, driven by capturing 31% of the Democratic voter base.
Behind the top three candidates, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco sits at 11%, former congresswoman Katie Porter at 10%, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan at 8%, and former Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa at 4%.
Another 12% of voters remain undecided.
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When forced to choose, undecided voters push Becerra to 20%, Steyer to 19%, Hilton to 18%, and Porter to 13%.
The data also highlights varying levels of voter loyalty; 73% of Hilton’s supporters say they will definitely vote for him, compared to 52% of Becerra’s supporters and 48% of Steyer’s supporters.
The poll also identified the top issues on the minds of Californians.
The economy leads at 42%, followed by housing affordability at 21%, threats to democracy at 9%, immigration at 8%, healthcare at 7%, and crime at 6%.
What we don't know:
It's unclear which two candidates will ultimately secure enough momentum to survive the primary, given how tight the margins are between Hilton, Steyer, and the rest of the field.
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Because 40% of decided voters concede they could change their mind, the exact stability of Becerra's current lead is unknown.
What they're saying:
"Xavier Becerra tops the crowded California primary for the first time in an Emerson poll, his support increased by nine points since mid-April, driven by now being the top choice among Democratic voters at 31%," Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.
"Steve Hilton and Tom Steyer closely follow at 17% respectively, Hilton’s support stagnant, while Steyer’s support increased three points since April."
What's next:
The crowded field of candidates will continue campaigning across the state to win over the 12% of undecided voters and sway the large chunk of voters who admit their choices are not yet locked in.
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The top two candidates, regardless of party, will face off in November’s general election.
The Source: This article is based entirely on a primary election survey conducted by Emerson College Polling and Inside California Politics between May 9-10, 2026. The data was gathered from a sample of 1,000 likely primary voters statewide and 350 likely voters in Los Angeles, with results weighted using U.S. Census parameters and voter files to ensure demographic accuracy.