Home prices are falling fastest in these California metros

Two California metros ranked among the top five in the real estate market where median home prices are dropping the most, according to a recent analysis by Realtor.com. 

By the numbers:

Nationwide, median home prices declined 0.6% year over year in December, data showed. Regionally, prices fell 1.1% in the South and 1.8% in the West compared to the previous year. 

According to Realtor.com, the five metros with the most significant price drops were: 

  1. Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX: Down 7.3%
  2. San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA: Down 6.7%
  3. San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA: Down 5.5%
  4. Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI: Down 4.9%
  5. Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV: Down 4.8%

The backstory:

The sharp decline in Austin is largely viewed as a correction following the pandemic. During that time, the area experienced an "artificial demand" due to looser restrictions and an influx of new residents, the analysis showed. 

Prices are now returning to sustainable levels as inventory grows beyond pre-pandemic heights.  

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Similarly, in California, the combination of high insurance costs, inflation, and high condo fees has created a "perfect storm" that has pushed buyers toward renting rather than purchasing.

What they're saying:

"It was a really slow 2025, and I think the big reason for that is economic uncertainty among buyers. People are really worried about their income and not really feeling like it's a great time for them to make a move," said Joel Berner, senior economist at Realtor.com.

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"When you have the perfect storm of higher interest rates, inflation, higher homeowners insurance costs, and high condo fees, buyers aren’t able to easily buy, and prices drop as a result," Cara Ameer, California real estate agent said.

Big picture view:

The national housing market is currently defined by a tug-of-war between affordability and inventory. While buyers are starting to accept interest rates in the 6% range, many remain "on the bench" due to job market concerns—particularly in Washington, DC, where federal employment no longer feels as secure. 

Meanwhile, the western rental market is showing softness, making it more comfortable for potential buyers to remain renters rather than committing to high monthly mortgage payments.

What's next:

The market is beginning to show signs of movement as buyers grow tired of waiting for further rate drops. However, some sellers remain resistant to lowering prices, especially in high-income areas like Austin where they are under less financial pressure to sell. 

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In several markets, sellers are choosing to rent out their homes rather than accept lower offers, which may continue to impact available inventory in early 2026.

The Source: This report is based on a comprehensive analysis of December 2025 housing data provided by Realtor.com, utilizing regional price trends and inventory metrics to track market shifts. 

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