Weather pattern may shift the smoke eastward this weekend

Air quality forecast and the weather near the Bobcat Fire

Meteorologist Rick Dickert talks about the weather near the Bobcat Fire, and also gives his air quality forecast for Los Angeles and surrounding communities.

LOS ANGELES - One of the most difficult parts of our Southern California forecast lately has been the smoke. Not only were we experiencing smoke from our own local fires, namely the Bobcat Fire in the San Gabriel Mountains and the El Dorado Fire in San Bernardino County...but last week, we were also experiencing smoke from fires in Northern California and the Pacific Northwest! It's been a long, smoky 7 days that's for sure, and unfortunately, this smoke continues this week, especially in LA County and places closest to the fires.

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The problem with the forecasts is that the global (GFS & ECMWF) and the NAM forecast models do not handle the smoke very well. Often, the models over-forecast breezy winds at the lowest levels of the atmosphere that could help clear out the smoke. Many times, these winds never make it to ground level and do little to help us breathe easier. But, these winds are often breezy over the mountains and through the canyons, making dangerous conditions for firefighters battling the flames.

The main feature models have been honing in on this week - and seems the most promising to help clear out the smoke - has been a trough of low pressure shifting overhead by this weekend. That begins on Thursday, but it really strengthens Saturday afternoon, increasing the onshore flow, bringing in more humid ocean air and southwesterly flow that will shift the smoke eastward and create more mixing of the lower atmosphere to help us breathe easier!

Meteorologist Liana Brackett