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Bass, Raman tied in LA mayor's race, new poll shows
With less than a week until Election Day, a new poll by the LA Times shows Mayor Karen Bass and Councilmember Nithya Raman in a dead heat in the race for LA mayor.
LOS ANGELES - A newly-released poll shows incumbent Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass and challenger Nithya Raman locked in a tight contest as the city heads toward Election Day.
The results mark one of the most competitive municipal runoffs in recent Los Angeles political history, with neither candidate holding a clear edge.
What we know:
Bass and Raman are tied at 40% among likely Los Angeles voters, with 19% still undecided, according to a UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll co-sponsored by The Los Angeles Times released Wednesday.
The new numbers mark a major comeback for Bass, erasing an 11-point deficit against Raman since late September. In the earlier survey, Raman led Bass 39% to 28%, with a third of likely voters undecided.
Poll director Mark DiCamillo told the Times Bass's surge was driven largely by conservative voters making up their minds – specifically those who backed reality TV star Spencer Pratt in the primary. Bass nearly doubled her support among Pratt voters, jumping from 22% to 41%, while Raman's share among that group slipped to 14%.
Despite tying the race, Bass continues to face headwinds with public perception following her response to the January 2025 wildfires; 65% of likely voters view her unfavorably, compared to 32% who view her favorably, according to the poll.
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The Berkeley IGS/LA Times survey polled 2,197 voters online between Oct. 19 and Oct. 25, with a margin of error of approximately 3 percentage points.
Both campaigns have intensified their outreach in the final weeks of the race, holding televised debates and rallying grassroots networks across the city.
What we don't know:
It's unclear how late-deciding voters will break before the polls close, particularly in moderate and high-turnout council districts that did not deliver large margins to either candidate in the primary round.
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PREVIOUS COVERAGE: 10 days to decide: Bass, Raman make final push for LA Mayor
With Election Day just 10 days away, incumbent Mayor Karen Bass and challenger Nithya Raman are making their final push to voters across Los Angeles. Both candidates held weekend campaign events to rally volunteers, outline key priorities, and reach undecided Angelenos before ballots are cast.
The final composition of the electorate, including the share of ballots returned by mail compared to in-person turnout on Election Day, could shift the outcome in favor of either campaign.
What they're saying:
The Bass campaign reacted to the poll on Wednesday morning, saying the momentum in the race now belongs to Bass, and they believe the poll shows voters trust her on public safety and other key issues.
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As for Raman's campaign, they say they're not surprised the numbers changed after a month of negative campaigning from Bass, but they say the incumbent has not been able to lead in any poll since August.
What's next:
Voters across Los Angeles will cast their final ballots to decide who will serve as the city's chief executive for the next four-year term.
County election officials will begin releasing preliminary tally updates shortly after voting concludes, with final certified results following after all mail-in and provisional ballots are fully counted.
The Source: This report is based on a poll conducted by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times.