40% of LA voters undecided in 2026 mayor's race, poll finds

LOS ANGELES - With the June 2 primary election rapidly approaching, a new UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs poll reveals a volatile landscape where nearly half of the electorate remains uncommitted. 

Despite the crowded field of 14 candidates, Mayor Karen Bass currently holds a double-digit lead over her nearest challengers, though her path to an outright majority remains blocked by a massive bloc of undecided voters.

What we know:

The poll, which surveyed 813 likely voters between March 15 and March 29, places Mayor Karen Bass at 25% support. 

Her closest competitors are Spencer Pratt at 11% and Nithya Raman at 9%, while housing advocate Rae Chen Huang and tech executive Adam Miller both sit at 3%. 

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Under Los Angeles election rules, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote in the June primary, the top two finishers will advance to a high-stakes runoff in November.

What we don't know:

The primary mystery remains the ultimate destination of the 40% of voters who are currently undecided. 

Political analysts are also watching to see if the "spoiler" effect of minor candidates will prevent any of the top three from consolidating enough support to avoid a runoff.

It's unclear how recent city crises—including a nearly $1 billion budget gap and the aftermath of the Pacific Palisades wildfire—will influence late-breaking voters in the final eight weeks of the campaign.

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What they're saying:

"It is unusual for 40% of likely voters to be unsure of their choice just two months before an LA mayoralty election," said Zev Yaroslavsky, director of the Los Angeles Initiative at UCLA Luskin.

Yaroslavsky noted that while Bass faces her "most challenging reelection" in years, the current data suggests the race is "wide-open" for those trailing her.

What's next:

Candidates are expected to ramp up advertising and community outreach to capture the undecided 40%. 

For Nithya Raman and Spencer Pratt, the coming weeks are a critical sprint to secure the second-place spot. 

Meanwhile, Mayor Bass will likely focus on consolidating her base while attempting to improve her standing among younger demographics.