Delta, Omicron and influenza could lead to a tridemic, experts say

OAKLAND, Calif. - The Omicron variant of coronavirus may be dominating headlines, but one Bay Area doctor says there’s more we should be keeping our eye on.

Delta is still the dominant variant, is surging in parts of the country, and is also on the rise here.

Two Bay Area doctors have two different opinions about the near term outlook on COVID.

In this case, one doctor sees a picture that could be getting darker, another sees a situation that could be getting brighter.

Hospitalizations and deaths are up in some of the least vaccinated areas of the country.

While Omicron grabs headlines, Delta is doing the damage, and another familiar threat is looming, a concern for Dr. John Swartzberg, a UC Berkeley Infectious Diseases Expert.

"I think we’re in for a tridemic and that is on top of Delta and Omicron we have lurking in the wings, influenza."

In normal years, the flu alone causes hundreds of thousands of hospitalizations and upwards of 25,000 deaths.

"We could really be in for some really tough times in terms of having the hospital capacity to take care of everybody," said Swartzberg.

Though there is the potential in parts of the country for hospitals to return to tents and other means to expand capacity, Swartzberg considers that a worst case scenario.

UCSF Infectious Disease Specialist Dr. Monica Gandhi has a different take, given recent studies that indicate Omicron, although more transmisible, may cause mostly mild disease.

"They took models of lung cells and even though Alpha, Delta, all the other variants will get into the lungs cells and cause fusion and cause damage, the Omicron variant doesn’t seem to be able to infect lungs cells."

That potentially means Omicron may cause something more akin to a bad head cold, rather than lung issues requiring hospitalization.

Gandhi says, for her, the data are already convincing.

"I actually don’t think we need any more data than we have now… We would have known by now, in the country that has the most prevalence of Omicron, if it was causing severe disease.  It’s just, we have had enough time to see that."

Doctors say the Bay Area, more vaccinated, boosted and masked than many other parts of the country, may likely be immune from a severe winter surge, though in a few weeks, less vaccinated areas could potentially get hit hard.

"We’re going to see not only an awful lot of cases, but an awful lot of hospitalizations, some hospital systems getting overwhelmed and a lot of refrigerator trucks for the dead bodies outside of those hospitals," said Swartzberg.

Something doctors agree on: the best way to prevent the coming months from getting worse is to get vaccinated, boosted, and a flu shot as well.