Leaving California makes homeownership 48% more likely, study finds

LOS ANGELES - A decade-long analysis confirms that the "California Dream" is increasingly being found elsewhere, as residents fleeing the state’s high cost of living achieve homeownership at significantly higher rates in more affordable regions.

What we know:

Data from the California Policy Lab at UC Berkeley, tracking households from 2016 to 2025, shows a stark contrast in affordability. 

Californians leaving the state moved to areas where the median home price was $396,000—or 48%—lower than their previous neighborhoods. 

Monthly housing expenses, including taxes and insurance, dropped from an average of $2,376 in California to $1,705 in destination states. 

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Renters benefited similarly, seeing their monthly payments slashed by roughly 30%.

What they're saying:

"The price tag has gone up on the California dream, and many families are leaving the state for more affordable places," said Evan White, executive director of the California Policy Lab. 

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He noted that the impact of these moves is "stark," highlighting that destination neighborhoods are often half as expensive, allowing families to transition from renting to owning much faster.

What's next:

While Nevada remains the top destination, gaining 81 residents per 10,000 from California annually, followed closely by Idaho (64) and Oregon (37), the trend is likely to continue as long as the inventory-to-demand gap persists. 

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Experts are watching to see if these migration patterns will eventually drive up costs in these "in-flow" states, potentially narrowing the affordability gap that currently lures Californians away.

What you can do:

If you are considering a move to improve your financial outlook, research the specific property tax and insurance rates in destination states, as these were factored into the $672 average savings found in the study. 

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Prospective homebuyers should also compare the seven-year homeownership success rates—48% for those who leave versus just 27% for those who move into California.