Oscar predictions: The day after

- Postmortem time.

How did I do?

Between “My Picks” and “My Predictions” I got them all right except for Cinematography. That noise you hear is me blowing my own horn.


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

MY PICK: SPOTLIGHT

MY PREDICTION: STRAIGHT OUTTA COMPTON

See, sometimes you should just go with what feels right. More on Spotlight later in my Best Picture recap.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

MY PICK: CAROL

MY PREDICTION: THE BIG SHORT

Like I wrote in my preview, I really “felt” Carol, but The Big Short was original and made a dull subject interesting. Also gave a nod to the fact that the film won the Producer’s Guild award.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

MY PICK: CAROL

MY PREDICTION: MAD MAX: FURY ROAD

Wrong and Wrong.

The Revenant was visually stunning. The way Emmanuel Lubezki conveyed intimacy and expanse, sometimes in the same shot, really made the tone of the movie work.

This was the second toughest category to predict because all five nominees were outstanding.

BEST DIRECTOR

MY PICK: George Miller

MY PREDICTION: Alejandro Gonzalez Innaritu

Sometimes logic has to outweigh sentiment. It would have been something of a lifetime achievement award for Miller.

Gonzalez Innaritu has had this sewn up for a couple of months. That’s two in a row for the talented director.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

MY PICK: Rooney Mara

MY PREDICTION: Alicia Vikander

Mara was in the wrong category.

The pre-Oscar buzz surrounding Vikander paid off. She is very talented. Here are the movies she was in in 2015: Ex Machina, The Man from U.N.C.L.E. and The Danish Girl. Great range.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

MY PICK: Mark Rylance

MY PREDCITION: Sylvester Stallone

I take no pleasure in being right.

Ok, I take all pleasure in being right.

This was the toughest category in which to be nominated. Five great performances.

Rylance is a fabulous actor and the Academy rewarded subtle greatness over bombast.

BEST ACTRESS

MY PICK: Brie Larson

MY PREDICITION: Brie Larson

If there was a no brainer this year, this was it. Even more of a sure thing than DiCaprio’s best actor win.

If she had lost it would have been a Trainwreck (see what I did there? See? Get it? No?)

BEST ACTOR

MY PICK: Michael Fassbender

MY PREDICTION: Leonardo DiCaprio

This was the second surest thing of the night.

The voters awarded physical transformation over a more nuanced portrayal of a cultural icon.

DiCaprio went from brooding to brooding and angry. It was an above average performance. Ok, way above average. But I would like the voters to prize acting skill as much as not eating, working out or getting fat for a role.

BEST PICTURE

MY PICK: SPOTLIGHT

MY PREDICTION: THE REVENANT

I was genuinely and pleasantly surprised by Spotlight’s win. See, sometimes the voters do get it right.

Spotlight absolutely moved me more than any other film I saw last year. Maybe in several years. I was tearing up very early in the movie and my outrage and emotional investment grew.

All the pieces of a great movie came together. Great screenplay. Subtle, yet effective directing. A fantastic cast doing outstanding work.

Well done Academy. Well done.

A couple of notes:

Congrats to Ennio Morricone on winning his first Oscar. The score for The Hateful Eight was perfect.

I would have to go back and review all the Best Song winners, but I am guessing this will be among the worst ever. Ugh. What a horrible song.
 

Alan Yudman is a writer/producer for Fox 11 News. He also blogs movie reviews at Hollywood and Whine www.hollywoodandwhine.net.

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